Kerry Winning, Part 1: Electoral College

Everybody knows the race for President is close. Looking back over the last few months, it’s pretty much always been close. Or at least it seems that way.

I don’t fully understand the seemingly outdated Electoral College system, but it’s the only one that matters. Happily, Kerry has been having success in this area, and getting comfortable above the 270-vote threshold.

Looking at available Electoral projections from May 24th through today, October 19th – (143 days of data) – Kerry has lead in electorial votes exactly 100 times, or 69.9% of the time.

Over that same period, Kerry has gone above 300 a whopping 49 times, while Bush has only managed that level of success a sorry,-you’re-going-back-to-Texas 9 times. Kerry has surpassed 320 electoral votes 19 times, while Bush has only fooled that many people three times.

Unlike the popular vote outcomes which in 2000 Gore won by more than a half-million votes, the Electoral College number matters. To win the Presidency you need at least 270 Electoral College Votes (EVs).

Unfortunately for Bush, he has only reached that magic number 39 times in this campaign, while Kerry is comfortable in that world, having spend over three months there (92 days).

Open question: when will we do away with the Electoral College? Isn’t it time that American’s votes actually directly counted?

Kerry has peaked at 327 projected electorial votes eight times, while Bush has only managed to reach those heights twice.