Put Your Money Where Your Future Is

Via Chad Dickerson’s blog, I discovered Long Bets – Accountable Predictions, which is created by The Long Now Foundation, builders of the 10,000-year Clock and the 10,000-year Library.

Anyways, it’s an interesting site. Long Bets hosts predictions of life 2 to 200 years in the future. Mitchell Kapor and Ray Kurzweil have $10,000 each on whether a computer will pass the Turing Test by 2029. Dave Winer and Martin Nisenholtz have $1,000 on each side of blogs being bigger than the NYTimes by 2007. Microsoft and Google are head-to-head of computer-pilot commercial airplanes.

There are many with bets on both sides, and a growing list of predictions needing bettors.